If Obama Fails, Who Wins?

Lately, Rush Limbaugh has been called to the carpet over his line that he hopes Obama fails. Now, since that statement was made, Mr. Limbaugh has clarified this to mean that he hopes Obama's policies fail.

While this blog is not a place for political discussion, it is a place for explaining economics. It is important to look at the alternatives to the statement, "I hope Obama fails". (I call this "game theory light")

Alternative 1: Obama fails and the economy suddenly improves.
Alternative 2: Obama fails and the economy continues to slide.
Alternative 3: Obama succeeds and the economy improves.
Alternative 4: Obama succeeds and the economy fails.

Based upon these options, we are really only happy with #1 and #3. Obviously, we all want the economy to improve and for people to get back to work. I do have a problem with Alternative #4 because by the administration's metrics, success is gauged by job creation. So it doesn't make sense that Obama and his policies could succeed without the economy improving.

Now, let's look at it from the Republican point of view. Clearly, Limbaugh is interested in getting the GOP back into power. So here are the alternatives for the Republicans:

Alternative 1: Obama fails and the economy suddenly improves.--GOP Wins
Alternative 2: Obama fails and the economy continues to slide.--GOP Loses
Alternative 3: Obama succeeds and the economy improves. --GOP Loses
Alternative 4: Obama succeeds and the economy fails. --GOP Loses

This will take some explanation.

#1. If Obama fails and the economy improves, then the GOP would be the political winner.

#2 If Obama fails and the economy gets worse, then the GOP loses because they could only claim to have caused Obama to fail, but without an improved economy and no real plans other than for the government to stay out of it then the GOP will lose.

#3. Self explanatory

#4. This is similar to #2, but in this case the GOP may win politically and the country would lose economically. You could argue that the GOP would win here simply because Obama lost, but the human costs would be pretty high. This alternative is still flawed because Obama's success is tied to job creation.

What is Stimulative?

This morning, I was watching Fox and Friends to see what Donald Trump had to say. Included in the group on the couch was Geraldo Rivera. As they were picking apart the stimulus plan and discussing about the pork in the law, something really strange happened: I agreed with Geraldo.

This is pretty weird. It is right up there with seeing a goat flying outside the window of a 747. If you ever find yourself agreeing with Geraldo, then you might go a little dizzy as I did. Just sit down, collect yourself and try to regain your composure.

The Donald was saying that all this spending is going to destroy the economy. All we need is time and everything will be fine. Then Geraldo said it. Stimulus spending is any spending. He used the example of a grape juice museum (which is not in the plan). If the government builds the grape juice museum, while not necessarily what we need, it would still be stimulative. He is right!

Anytime the government borrows money and then spends it is in fact, stimulative in the present time or when it is spent. Yes, over the long haul that money needs to be paid back which will come from higher taxes or inflationary repayment (printing the money). But the immediate effect is stimulative.

So while we may not agree with all the things that are being bought, we should agree that any money that is spent and not immediately paid for with taxes is stimulative.

It's Economics Silly!

Last night I had some friends over for our regular nickle-ante poker game. As the night went on, comments were made about how bad the stimulus package is and how all of this is going to cause rapid inflation.

Of course, the guys saying this stuff were just parotting what they heard on television or the radio. Honestly, do you really think that Rush Limbaugh understands macroeconomic theory?

So what is the effect of the stim and how will it affect the broad economy? To understand this, we must first look at where we are now. In October, the money market pretty much siezed. This caused a ripple effect that quickly caused the failure of Lehman Brothers. Once that hit, then the Treasury Department got involved and pushed through the Toxic Asset Recovery Program (TARP).

After everyone saw that the economic meltdown was underway, then there was a rush to liquidity. You can tell this by looking at the 3 month treasury bills which went to almost 0%. When there is a rapid movement away from leveraged investments to cash, you will see asset prices drop. In other words, lots of people who had stuff that they owed money on sold that stuff at a reduced price. That is part one.

Part two is the forclosure issue. As homeowners go through foreclosure, they lower the value of their homes and their neighbor's homes. This is because when you have an appraisal done on your home, the appraiser looks at the comparable home sales in the area. If Joe down the street sold his home for 30% off then it will affect your home and subsequently what you can borrow against it. This is part two.

Put parts one and two together then you get deflation. Deflation, the opposite of inflation, means that asset prices are moving lower, consumer prices are moving lower, wages are moving lower. It is very, very bad. If you get into a deflationary spiral, then people will hoard money because it will be worth more later. If people don't spend money, then the demand continues to drop and prices keep droping. If prices continue to drop, then deflation increases and people don't spend. I think you get the idea.

So back to the stimulus plan, anyone who understands these forces knows that you cannot let the market fix this on its own. Will the market correct eventually? Sure, but at what cost? This mess will cause massive unemployment, loss of capital, bank failures, hoarding, and eventually price fixing.

As for what it will cost the taxpayers, the choice is simple: either invest in something now, or face lower revenues which will cost the taxpayer just as much.

Here is how it all works:

1. Prices are falling, demand is off causing the risk of a deflationary spiral.
2. The government prints money then uses that money to buy bonds from the government.
3. The money is then spread across the country and is spent. (it really doesn't matter where)
4. As the new money is introduced into the economy, it causes inflation.
5. The inflation counters the deflation which as discussed above is very very bad.
6. Because the treasury actually printed the money, the real national debt does not really increase.

Any questions?

Preparing for the downturn

By now, if you have not put your small business in a strong position for the economic slowdown, then you are likely having sleepless nights. We can all hope that the worst is over, but chances are that it is only beginning. Keeping in mind that the overall goal for you, the small business owner, is to come out of the recession with what you went into it with, then you may want to do some of the following:

1. Be sure you have plenty of cash. This means talking to your banker to be sure you have a line of credit to carry all the business expenses for 3 months. If you don't have this line set up already, get to work on it now.

2. Keep your receivables down. Everyone is feeling the pinch, so make sure you are collecting on all your invoices quickly. Anything that passes 30 days should be pursued with all your strength. The longer it goes, the worse it gets.

3. Make sure you aren't paying for deadwood. I know it seems heartless, but if you have employees that aren't performing, then you need to get rid of them before they pull your good employees and you down.

4. Get back to being a guerilla. Don't forget to beat the bushes for new business. Now is the time that all that great customer service you have been working on for years should pay off. Provide a needed and valuable service to your clients and they will use you. Call people and talk to them like people. You don't need to spend money to do this, just time.

5. Keep your employees informed on where you are and where you need to be. I never subscribe to the secret finanancial planning. If you need to hit a number in revenue to make things work, let everyone know. They won't ask for a raise, they may just rise to the occasion.